Modern machine learning models struggle to maintain performance in dynamic environments where temporal distribution shifts, i.e., concept drift, are prevalent. Temporal Domain Generalization (TDG) seeks to enable model generalization across evolving domains, yet existing approaches typically assume smooth incremental changes, struggling with complex real-world drifts involving both long-term structure (incremental evolution/periodicity) and local uncertainties. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FreKoo, which tackles these challenges through a novel frequency-domain analysis of parameter trajectories. It leverages the Fourier transform to disentangle parameter evolution into distinct spectral bands. Specifically, the low-frequency components with dominant dynamics are learned and extrapolated using the Koopman operator, robustly capturing diverse drift patterns including both incremental and periodic drifts. Simultaneously, potentially disruptive high-frequency variations are smoothed via targeted temporal regularization, preventing overfitting to transient noise and domain uncertainties. In addition, this dual-spectral strategy is rigorously grounded through theoretical analysis, providing stability guarantees for the Koopman prediction, a principled Bayesian justification for the high-frequency regularization, and culminating in a multiscale generalization bound connecting spectral dynamics to improved generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate FreKoo's significant superiority over state-of-the-art TDG methods, particularly excelling in real-world streaming scenarios with complex drifts and uncertainties.

Indian languages exhibit high dialectal variation and are spoken by populations that remain digitally underserved. Existing speech corpora typically represent only standard dialects and lack domain and linguistic diversity.

When applicants get rejected by a high-stakes algorithmic decision system, recourse explanations provide actionable suggestions for applicants on how to change their input features to get a positive evaluation. A crucial yet overlooked phenomenon is that recourse explanations are performative: When many applicants act according to their recommendations, their collective behavior may shift the data distribution and, once the model is refitted, also the decision boundary. Consequently, the recourse algorithm may render its own recommendations invalid, such that applicants who make the effort of implementing their recommendations may be rejected again when they reapply. In this work, we formally characterize the conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under their own performative effects. In particular, we prove that recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or if they intervene on non-causal variables. Based on this analysis, we caution against the use of standard counterfactual explanation and causal recourse methods, and instead advocate for recourse methods that recommend actions exclusively on causal variables.

Motivated by real-life supply chain management, we study a repeated newsvendor problem in which the learner is a mediator that facilitates trades between suppliers and retailers in a sequence of supplier/retailer interactions. At each time step, a new supplier and retailer join the mediator's platform with a private production cost and utility function, respectively, and the platform proposes a unitary trading price. The supplier accepts the proposed price if it meets or exceeds their unitary production cost and communicates their decision to the platform; simultaneously, the retailer decides the quantity to purchase at the proposed trading price based on their private utility function and sends their decision to the platform. If the supplier accepts the trading price, the transaction proceeds, and the retailer purchases their chosen quantity of units, paying the product of this quantity and the trading price to the supplier. The mediator's objective is to maximize social welfare. We design an online mediator's pricing strategy that features sharp regret rates under some natural assumptions, and we investigate the necessity of these assumptions, proving that relaxing any of them leads to unlearnability.

Time series anomaly detection plays a crucial role in a wide range of real-world applications. Given that time series data can exhibit different patterns at different sampling granularities, multi-scale modeling has proven beneficial for uncovering latent anomaly patterns that may not be apparent at a single scale. However, existing methods often model multi-scale information independently or rely on simple feature fusion strategies, neglecting the dynamic changes in cross-scale associations that occur during anomalies. Moreover, most approaches perform multi-scale modeling based on fixed sliding windows, which limits their ability to capture comprehensive contextual information. In this work, we propose CrossAD, a novel framework for time series Anomaly Detection that takes Cross-scale associations and Cross-window modeling into account. We propose a cross-scale reconstruction that reconstructs fine-grained series from coarser series, explicitly capturing cross-scale associations. Furthermore, we design a query library and incorporate global multi-scale context to overcome the limitations imposed by fixed window sizes. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple real-world datasets using nine evaluation metrics validate the effectiveness of CrossAD, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection.

The proposed research on pre-training temporal graph neural networks across multiple networks has the potential to advance the field of machine learning and its applications significantly. By introducing methodologies to enhance the scalability and transferability of TGNNs, this work could revolutionize areas like network security, financial fraud detection, and real-time social network analysis, where dynamic and adaptive models are essential. The publicly available dataset of 84 Ethereum-based temporal networks will serve as a valuable resource for the research community, fostering innovation and collaboration. Furthermore, the principles of multi-network pre-training introduced here can inspire analogous advances in other temporal data domains, such as healthcare, transportation, and climate science. This research opens up a new direction in training generalizable temporal graph models that, for the first time, can be trained on distinct temporal networks, paving the way for Temporal Graph Foundation Models. This work also introduces a set of Ethereum transaction token networks, which are publicly available to users who have the necessary resources, such as fast SSDs, large RAM, and ample disk space, to synchronize Ethereum clients and manually extract blocks. Additionally, all Ethereum data is accessible on numerous Ethereum explorer sites such as etherscan.io. An Ethereum user's privacy depends on whether personally identifiable information (PII) is associated with any of their blockchain address, which serves as account handles and are considered pseudonymous. If such PII were obtained from other sources, our datasets could potentially be used to link Ethereum addresses. However, real-life identities can only be discovered using IP tracking information, which we neither have nor share. Our data does not contain any PII. Furthermore, we have developed a request to exclude an address from the dataset. Benchmark datasets have become fundamental for advancing graph machine learning, providing a common ground to evaluate models and facilitate the development of graph foundation models. Early graph ML studies often relied on a handful of small, static benchmark graphs (e.g., citation networks like Cora/Citeseer and molecular graphs from the TU collection [37]).

Temporal Graph Learning (TGL) aims to discover patterns in evolving networks or temporal graphs and leverage these patterns to predict future interactions. However, most existing research focuses on learning from a single network in isolation, leaving the challenges of within-domain and cross-domain generalization largely unaddressed. In this study, we introduce a new benchmark of 84 real-world temporal transaction networks and propose Temporal Multi-network Transfer (MiNT), a pre-training framework designed to capture transferable temporal dynamics across diverse networks. We train MiNT models on up to 64 transaction networks and evaluate their generalization ability on 20 held-out, unseen networks. Our results show that MiNT consistently outperforms individually trained models, revealing a strong relation between the number of pre-training networks and transfer performance. These findings highlight scaling trends in temporal graph learning and underscore the importance of network diversity in improving generalization. This work establishes the first large-scale benchmark for studying transferability in TGL and lays the groundwork for developing Temporal Graph Foundation Models.

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototypebased time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multimodal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow--prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement--continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk--the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a modelagnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plugin implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.1