Christopher Marquis is a professor at the University of Cambridge and the author of The Profiteers. In 1930, in the depths of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote a short essay called . It is often remembered for one striking prediction: by 2030, people in wealthy countries might only need to work about 15 hours a week. What Keynes imagined was a society advanced enough to solve what he called the "economic problem" of basic material provision. If technology kept improving, and societies kept growing richer, then fewer hours of human labor would be needed to produce the necessities and comforts of life.

Universal rejects billionaire Bill Ackman's takeover bid Universal Music Group, the entertainment giant behind acts such as Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter and Kendrick Lamar, has rejected a takeover offer by billionaire Bill Ackman's investment firm. The music giant said Pershing Square's $64.3bn (£48bn) takeover offer was not in the best interests of the company, shareholders, artists, fans and other stakeholders. Universal said the offer fundamentally and materially undervalues the business, which also runs Abbey Road Studios and owns labels such as EMI and Island Records. Pershing Square, which already owns a stake in Universal, declined to comment on the rejection. The investment firm launched its takeover bid for the world's largest music company in April, a move which would have seen it listed as a new company in America.

Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) have been driven by unsupervised generative models, such as large language models (LLMs) and image generators, which are not directly compatible with CP or CRC. In this work we introduce conformal generation (Conf-Gen), a general framework adapting CRC to generative tasks while relaxing its theoretical assumptions. Conf-Gen unifies and generalizes previous attempts to apply CP to LLMs, and extends conformal methodology to entirely new domains. We demonstrate the flexibility of Conf-Gen through some novel applications, including obtaining conformal guarantees on: image generators producing non-memorized images, conversational AI systems having asked enough clarifying questions, and the output of AI agents being correct.

Fraud detection models in payment networks train on chargeback labels that are systematically biased. Every label must survive three sequential gates: authorization (declined transactions generate no labels), issuer reporting (unreported fraud is invisible), and delay (pending chargebacks are missing at training time). Labels that do arrive may be corrupted by first-party misuse or issuer misclassification. A companion paper [arXiv:2605.27557] proved that these four impairments impose a minimax lower bound on detection performance. This paper asks: can that bound be achieved? We formalize the observation pipeline as a sequential missing-data problem with three propensity stages and a corruption layer, and construct the Sequential Triply Robust (STR) estimator. The STR corrects for all four impairments simultaneously and achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound -- no estimator can have lower asymptotic variance. It is sequentially triply robust: at each gate, consistency requires only that either the propensity model or the outcome regression is correctly specified, not both. We provide corruption correction via noise-rate-adjusted pseudo-labels, empirical Bayes shrinkage to stabilize inverse-propensity weights for small issuers, a plug-in variance estimator yielding valid confidence intervals, and a Bernstein concentration inequality for finite-sample guarantees. On the operational side, we derive the optimal training delay -- the maturity window that minimizes the sum of label-quality loss and model staleness -- and prove that the STR permits training on data that is days old rather than months old, decoupling model freshness from the chargeback maturity cycle. The STR provably dominates naive chargeback-based training in mean squared error for any sample size.

Cluster analysis is a widely applied machine learning technique to understand the existing patterns in the population of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), in order to explore their physical sources. In the present scenario, the number of clusters corresponding to differentiable groups is still under conflict, in spite of numerous attempts with the state-of-the-art clustering procedures. This crucial unknown parameter needs to be evaluated, either directly or indirectly in terms of other tuning parameters, to produce the clusters in GRBs through implementation of an appropriate clustering algorithm. While most of the applied algorithms reached two physically explained groups of merger and collapsar predominated by the short and long bursts respectively, other statistical approaches violated this binary partition. However, physical establishment of any additional cluster(s) is not yet confirmed. Therefore, we propose a new algorithm, from a different stream of clustering referred to as `completely parameter-free', which carries out the classification of GRBs in a manner that has not been tried so far. It indicates two main groups, of short and long duration bursts from the BATSE sample, compatible with the merger-collapsar theory.

A panel of executives spoke at the TIME100 AI Leadership Forum on Wednesday night in New York City about the ways artificial intelligence is reshaping the business landscape, and how they're shepherding their companies into a technologically capricious future. Included on the panel at the TIME forum, which spotlighted AI-driven business leadership, were Nigel Vaz, the chief executive officer of Publicis Sapient, a tech-consulting firm that uses AI to help modernize business and a sponsor of Wednesday's event; Deepa Soni, the executive vice president and chief information officer of New York Life Insurance Company; and Ravi Radhakrishnan, the executive vice president and chief information officer of American Express. Vaz began the conversation discussing the "exponential" capability of AI to transform and enhance companies' abilities to problem solve and become more efficient. For his company, AI is a tool used to extract value and optimize performance for clients by reducing time and cost. Many of them, he notes, must bridge the gap between their relatively outdated technology and increasingly more useful AI tools--what he referred to as their "tech debt."

Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model's residuals suffer from circular dependence, causing tail shape inferences to shift drastically based solely on whether the core estimator is switched between Huber and Welsch.The research proposes an ADRF estimator that emits a structured tail-shape output alongside the standard point estimate. Its tail diagnostic (PDHTE+JK) evaluates the per-treatment tail shape from the outcome centered by a pilot median, successfully breaking the circular dependence and rendering the diagnostic invariant to the choice of core method. The output encompasses four treatment-conditional quantities: tail shape $\hatξ(t)$, deep-tail return levels $\hat{Q}_α(t)$, conditional shortfalls $\hat{S}_α(t)$, the recovered mean ADRF, and an explicit refusal mechanism that declines extrapolation when extreme-value modeling is unsupported by the data. Compared to kernel-weighted quantile regression (QR), the proposed estimator reduces deep-tail ($α=0.001$) return-level MAE by 11% and conditional-shortfall MAE by 25.5% across a heavy-tailed panel. It also achieves a 20-29% MAE reduction in sample-scarce regimes ($n\le2000$). On freMTPL2 motor-insurance claims, it successfully triggered an explicit extrapolation refusal on the log-claim scale, which neither QR nor loss-only DML can produce.

Card payment fraud detection is usually framed as a supervised classification problem. Although this approach has generated practical progress, improvement has remained incremental despite major advances in model architecture. We argue that this is not mainly a failure of function approximation or optimization, but a consequence of structural information impairments inherent to the payment ecosystem. We formalize card authorization as a sequential decision problem with delayed, censored, corrupted, and counterfactually missing feedback. We derive a minimax regret lower bound showing that these impairments enter multiplicatively in the denominator of the achievable learning rate. The bound implies that improving issuer reporting quality or reducing censorship can yield larger reductions in the regret floor than increasing model complexity. We also show that heterogeneity across issuers worsens learnability beyond what average impairment rates suggest. The paper contributes a theory of why fraud detection in payment networks is fundamentally harder than in standard online learning settings, identifies ecosystem information quality as the key bottleneck, and provides a theoretical basis for prioritizing investments in reporting infrastructure, dispute process quality, and selective exploration. The paper is theory-first and does not rely on proprietary transaction data.

We study bandit learning in matching markets, where players and arms constitute the two market sides, and the players' utilities are linear in the arm contexts. In each round, new arms arrive with observable contexts. Then, the algorithm matches them to players, aiming to minimize each player's regret against a stable matching benchmark. This contextual structure creates significant complexity: subtle context shifts can slightly alter one player's utility while completely reconfiguring the underlying benchmark, causing large regret spikes for others. We address this in two settings: stochastic contexts, drawn from a latent distribution, and adversarial contexts, which may be arbitrary. For the stochastic case, we introduce a novel minimum preference gap to capture learning difficulty and provide a fully adaptive algorithm with an instance-dependent poly-logarithmic regret upper bound. We also establish matching instance-independent regret upper and lower bounds under a mild distributional assumption. For the adversarial setting, we propose a tractable regret notion that remains valid under arbitrary contexts and achieves an instance-independent sublinear regret bound via an adaptive algorithm.

Traditional insurance pricing relies on risk-based principles that ensure actuarial fairness and solvency but do not explicitly account for policyholders' price sensitivity. We formulate insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and study it using tools from off-policy evaluation and stochastic control. We propose a kernelized inverse propensity score estimator that exploits local structure in the action space and yields variance reduction compared to the classical inverse propensity score estimator. Building on these value estimates, we investigate policy optimization and present two practical approaches for computing optimal pricing rules: an interpretable data-shared Lasso formulation and a flexible policy parameterization based on neural networks. Using a controlled synthetic travel insurance environment, we empirically confirm the theoretical results and show that neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.